Trajectory of S&P 500 Rhymes But Doesn't Repeat

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Last week’s edition of our S&P 500 chaos series had the headline “The S&P 500 Dips Outside Redzone Before Rallying to Return. As you might guess from the headline for this week’s edition, the index’s behavior this week rhymed with that pattern, but didn’t repeat since it started and ended at a lower level.

For us, that means there’s not much in the way of new analysis to offer that we haven’t already shared.

We are however watching the Fed’s minions, who are now trying to set investor expectations for rising interest rates in 2022 and especially in 2023, which aren’t yet affecting the trajectory of stock prices, but will as we get closer to those potential events. For now, investors are still focusing on the latter portion of 2020-Q4, when the Fed is expected to start tapering its bond buys to stimulate the U.S. economy as it tries to try to slow inflation growth. Both these factors were very noticeable in the past week’s news stream.

Monday, 27 September 2021
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions can’t stop talking taper, two announce resignations after trades are made public:
  • Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, China:
  • ECB minion would like higher inflation still:
  • Tech pulls Nasdaq, S&P 500 down as Treasury yields rise
Tuesday, 28 September 2021
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions want higher interest rates, think economy is fine, chief Fed minion interviewing to keep job wants to keep stimulus flowing:
  • Bigger trouble developing in Asia:
  • ECB minions think Eurozone governments need precision skills to keep carbon taxes from hurting people, want to keep stimulus flowing:
  • Wall Street stumbles on rising Treasury yields, inflation worries
Wednesday, 29 September 2021
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions setting stage for rate hikes, chief Fed minion says Fed’s only two jobs are tough:
  • Bigger trouble developing in China:
  • Bigger inflation developing all over:
  • Central bank minions starting to worry about inflation:
  • S&P 500, Dow gain amid inflation concerns, debt ceiling debate
Thursday, 30 September 2021
  • Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Fed minions setting stage for rate hikes:
  • Coronavirus pandemic still shaping course of national economies:
  • Bigger inflation developing all over:
  • BOJ minion happy with never-ending stimulus policy, ECB minion starting to worry about inflation:
  • Wall St slides, S&P 500 posts worst month, quarter since COVID outbreak
Friday, 1 October 2021

Last week, we featured a resource that provides a wealth of information about current interest rates for consumers. But what about historic interest rates? If you’re looking for data on 30-year conventional mortgage rates since January 1971, check out Freddie Mac’s monthly averages.