I am back this preseason to bring some fresh, hot dynasty trade values. For your perusal, I have rookies, rookie pick slots, positional tiers and some new, funky colors. Trade values charts are a great tool for evaluating players and looking for potential trades. As always, these are more of a guideline and should not be used as a bible. I will go over what is special about these charts, how to use them and how I make them.
But first, let’s dive right into the chart!
What is special about this chart?
I was able to partner with the experts here at The Athletic to make a special chart by generating exclusive values. Then, I compared them to the calculated values of the aggregated expert consensus ranks (ECR). The ECR (+/-) column can be used to find which players the experts here want you to buy or sell and to help identify some key market deficiencies. That way, you can really get an edge on your league-mates.
For example, Jalen Hurts’ trade value is calculated to be 66, a full 19 points higher than consensus. That is a lot of potential value you might be able to gain if you can trade for him at a value of 47-55. Use this chart to look for those buys or sells, and then make some offers.
Another special feature of this chart is that the rookies are broken out into their own column next to a corresponding pick. Make sure to check them out because they are a little different than ECR.
How to use a trade values chart
These are tools to make your life easier! The left-most column is the assigned trade value for a row. All players and picks in a row have the same value and, in theory, could be traded for one another. Players are separated into columns by position. The ECR column is calculated based on my “Reddit Adjusted” column that I publish on Patreon, Twitter and Reddit. A plus value means the trade value is above ECR; minus is the inverse.
If you are looking at larger trades (2-for-2 or 3-for-3), you just sum the sides of each trade to get an idea of fairness. Make sure to account for consolidating depth and trying to acquire stud players by overpaying. These are really a guideline to look for reasonable trades.
How I make these charts
The backbone of my model is seeded by the expert consensus ranks I aggregate from as many published sources as I can find. The goal is to try to average as much of the market as I can into one analysis. I feed the ranks into my database (clean up the names) and average positional ranks before running them through my model. Next, I assign rank-based trade values built on historic values as a function of positional scarcity. In all my models, running backs are the backbone. Wide receiver, tight end and quarterback values are determined based on a function of nearby RB values.
The dynasty rookie picks are a lot more complex. So, I manually go through crowd-sourced data (Twitter polls, KTC, etc.) and create a high- and low-value range for groups of picks (early, mid, late). Post-NFL Draft, the current-year rookie picks get a little easier to add to the chart. I will compare picks to other players at all positions to try to dial in the placement.
The 2023 picks are higher than normal n+1 rookie picks would be because of all the hype. The 2024 picks are about where I would expect n+2 picks to be located. They lose value due to not being relevant for another two years. I like scoring points and winning this year!
Let us know which trades you are working on this offseason. Trading makes fantasy fun!
(Photo: Denny Medley / USA Today)