AUDNZD trade idea: How to play the long term trend decelerating lower

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Part 1) introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term AUDNZD has been accelerating higher. In the long term AUDNZD has been decelerating lower. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a one week time horizon.

Part 2) trade idea details

Sell $ 257,825 AUD, or 2.58 lots of AUDNZD, take profit at $ 1.0881 level with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 AUD gain, stop out at $ 1.0965 with 50.02% odds for a $ 1,000 AUD loss through 1w time horizon

Part 3) AUDNZD trend analysis

AUDNZD last price was $ 1.092584. The long term trend decelerating lower is stronger than the short term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes short when the price was moving lower and decelerating over the past 19 days.

Part 4) AUDNZD value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the AUDNZD price increased 9 days and decreased 10 days. For every up day, there were 1.11 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.1499% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.285% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -1.5% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.0789% percent.

Part 5) AUDNZD worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won’t trade for AUDNZD, is $ 1.079916 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 1.104666 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 1.0965 could trade and that $ 1.0881 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key Takeaways:

  • Price today $ 1.092584.

  • Over the past 19 days, the AUDNZD price increased 9 days and decreased 10 Days.

  • For every up day, there were 1.11 down days.

  • The average return on days where the price increased is 0.1499%.

  • The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.285%.

  • Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -1.5% percent.

  • Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.0789% percent.

  • Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been decelerating: -0.2033 pips per day lower.

  • Over the last session, the price increased by 24.42 pips.

  • Over the last session, the price increased by 0.2235 %.

  • Over the last session, the price accelerated by 21.96 pips.